Sunday, May 17, 2009

Review: Bluehole OCA

Pros:
  • Large planning hull is wide and stable
  • Soft chines make side surfing easy
Cons:
  • Weighs 80 lbs. – maybe more
Specs:

Length: 15’2”
Width: 36”
Rocker: 2”
Paddler Weight: 100 lbs to 1000 lbs

Summary:

Yesterday, I ran the Locust Fork as it fell from 4 to 3.5 in my grandfather’s Bluehole OCA. The boat was produced in 1975, has some Royalex damage on the underside of the hull, but still floats. It has an old Birmingham Canoe Club sticker on it. My grandfather was a member back in the 70’s when LRC was suicide, Bull Dog Bend was the place to go, and the Locust was for experienced paddlers. The last time I’d paddled this boat on the Locust was some of my first whitewater trips, so it was good to reconnect with the original.

The boat was outfitted with a 72” airbag in the front, and knee pads for comfort. I bought that airbag in ’01 from Grainger at Alabama Small Boats – I assume he’d had it on the rack for while.

I was surprised at the speed of the old boat. Turn it on a chine, give it a forward stroke and the boat takes off. Arriving at eddies was easy; catching the eddy was a different story. I’m used to harder edges on a canoe that whip into the eddy; however, the soft chines of the OCA plow straight through the slow water. To get the boat to whip around required a strong bow draw. Even then, you needed maneuvering room.

The large planning hull makes an awesome surfer. Side surfing at ender hole was a good 12-second ride. Since I didn’t have a rear air bag, the boat stern squirted and flushed me out. The recovery process took 3 other boaters, and about 5 minutes. All of whom I thank again. I surfed the boat on a couple of other front surfing waves. The downside to playing in the OCA is the exhaustion from muscling the boat around.

Other than the play, the boat ran the river flawlessly. It always took to my commands when moving down rapids. On Double Trouble, I moved from right-to-left behind the top hole, and into the eddy easily. Above the river right hole on Tilt-a-Whirl, I caught the eddy, ferried across, perused on down, and took on minimal water. On Powell Falls, I got a little ambitious and ran the right bump. Everything went as planned, until I flipped on landing—my fault.

Overall, the boat was fun to reconnect with. It was easier to paddle than I remembered, and made for a fun day. In the future, I’ll probably pull the OCA out a little more.

Friday, May 08, 2009

Renault-Volvo Strategic Alliance

Written with Mahendra Madhavan for a case study in our Global Financial Management course.

Thesis

Disproportional control of the resulting Renault-Volvo RVA by the French Government was not a merger; it was an acquisition. Volvo investors lost all control of their organization, while assuming the risk of Renault. Volvo’s Executive Chairman, Peter Gyllenhammar, attempted to perform a unilateral cram-down by requiring quick decisions and giving sparse information. After pulling the company from its core competencies, Gyllenhammar resigned. Volvo leadership leveraged those failures to return the company to its core strengths.

Why was the merger proposal rejected? The economic rationale for the merger seemed unassailable. What other considerations proved significant?

The reason investors reject the merger is inadequate information from Volvo management. When Volvo’s Executive Chairman, Peter Gyllenhammar, champions the merger, he gives an incoherent retort emphasizing a quick merger, and non-business arguments such as: “You cannot go back to something you have just mentally left” (7). Volvo’s senior management loses confidence and trust of the investors by requiring a short timeline, and excluding them in the latest development; exceptional information must be provided for corporate changing events, like mergers. Volvo management performs improperly--only sparse information is provided, which creates uncertainty among the investors.

In addition, merger terms are not fair for all of Volvo investors. The French government retains a powerful right, termed a Golden Share, which prevents an investor from acquiring or voting more than 17.85% of direct interest in the merged company Renault Volvo Alliance (RVA). In concessions, the French Prime Minister raises the figure to 35%, matching Volvo’s actual percentage of equity at closing. Control of the special voting rights gives Volvo little control in the strategic direction of RVA.

Volvo investors are concerned about protectionist actions of the French government in other industries. French government intervention in internal RVA affairs and the powerful Golden Share ensures the French government retains control over corporate decision making. When Gyllenhammar tries to reinsure Volvo investors about French control, he vaguely states an attempt to get “interpretation or assurances” (7). A yet undefined timeline on the privatization of Renault creates anxiety among Volvo’s investors. Among the concerns, France’s Minister of Economics, Edmond Alphandery, has stated full privatization would not occur.

As a public company, Volvo’s market value is explicit. Yet, as a private company, Renault’s enterprise valuation contains assumptions on discounted cash flows, projections, and market multipliers. Since a privately held organization does not file financial statements to financial regulators, investors rely on biased information provided by merger proponents. Such valuations are subjective judgments of the valuation analysts. Resulting losses by Renault during the valuation and the proprietary details of the valuation analysis cause considerable concern among investors. Given this situation, investors question the fairness of 65% weight for Renault ownership in RVA.

Who figured prominently in the rejection? Did the opponents have one common objection, or did groups of them oppose different aspects? Either way, was Gyllenhammar’s approach appropriate?

Several groups oppose the merger. Volvo’s institutional investors leveraged the media for opposition. The Swedish news papers Expressen, Dagens Industri, and Svenska Dagbladet, all opposed the merger. Volvo senior and middle managers wrote letters to Soren Gyll, CEO, indicating disapproval of Gyllenhammar’s merger proposal. Merger opponents commonly object the lack of clarity and the uncertainties over the values implied in the merger agreement. Comments provided by the institutional investors in Exhibit 5 state such shortcomings. From Volvo’s Annual Report for 1993, Gyll wrote in an annual letter to the shareholders:

It is important to convey knowledge and understanding of the company’s current orientation and status to all interested parties. Candidness and clarity must characterize our operations. . .


Gyll understands the importance of shareholder information, and the lack of which caused the RVA debacle.

Gyllenhammar, the Volvo’s chief architect of the Renault-Volvo merger, began with intentions to make RVA a leading global auto manufacturing company. Three arguments for the merger are (1) competitive efficiencies, (2) operating efficiencies and (3) financial strength. Proponents envision this in phases: the 1991 strategic alliance leads to combined company in 1994. Through the process, Gyllenhammar invested personal amount of time and energy to create the alliance. However, he deviated from fundamental steps required for the complex merger of public and private entities. 164,000 institutional and private investors own Volvo, and the majority is required to approve the merger. Stakeholder buy-in requires earning the trust and confidence of most parties. Gyllenhammar releases three documents a span of two months; the first two contained soft information with no financial forecast. Since synergy is cited as the primary advantage, a lack of financial support for synergy eroded investor confidence. When disclosed, details of the Golden Share surprise Volvo’s board of directors. The details of which are hashed together only two days before the announcement. Such actions constitute calculating intentions or brash foolishness by Gyllenhammar. Although the board iterated support several times, investors felt the Gyllenhammar’s submission to the French government gives Volvo away cheaply. Criticism of Gyll by Gyllenhammar for his half-hearted leadership of his management team indicates the merger proposal is an ego clash.

Volvo’s latest financial reports show a surge in profits (SKr 1.03 billion) for trucks and cars for the first nine months of the year contrasting a loss (SKr 707 million) in the corresponding period the previous year. This begins the company’s emergence to profitable, and Renault reports losses tied to the recession in the European automotive industry. Analysts questioned if Volvo needed Renault. Gyllenhammar should use the latest financial results to renegotiate ownership balance in RVA and possible removal of Golden share arrangement.

In his three page resignation document, Gyllenhammar lists the efforts undertaken by Volvo under his leadership for merger with Renault. He criticized the shareholders for rejecting the merger proposal; yet, not a single sentence spoke regards the Golden Share agreement, which was concern for all Volvo investors. Initial intentions of a merger were geared to make RVA dominant in the 21st century auto industry. Gyllenhammar created a divisive situation and failed to act in the best interests of the Volvo’s share holders.

What was the “process” by which the proposal failed? Since no vote was taken, had the proposal really failed?

Once the proposal shows cracks, the growing opposition from media, investors and employees overwhelms any progress. For Gyllenhammar, the process failed. For Volvo, the process is an inactionable proposal. Gyllenhammar communicates poorly and lacks sufficient information to make the proposal actionable. He admits lack of clarity: “If we can address these other concerns – give more clarification, perhaps get positive news on privatization – then we think the chance is very good.” To win the process, he should provide infinite documents creating an overload of transparency.

Once concerns fuel nationalistic, conservative editorials, Swedish Small Shareholders Association announces the evaluation is impossible on the basis of meager information. This was in response to an eight-page brochure summarizing the terms and rationale for the merger. The document stated synergies would save up to Fr 30 billion (both Volvo and Renault) by the end of 2000; however, no financial forecasts validated the estimate. Volvo published a 2nd document at the request of shareholders; again it contained no financial forecast and little detail. This document only expanded on allocation of the synergies: 60% from car and 40% in truck and bus operations. Finally, Volvo released a third document containing supplemental information, a valuation discussion and fairness opinion from Credit Suisse First Boston, and copies of letters from the French government. The letters contained assurances regarding use of the golden share and privatization. This document addressed the concern of an institutional investor questioning fair value of Renault’s shares. By this time institutional investors had decided not to support the merger proposal. Volvo employees with 5000 white-collar workers announced its members would vote their shares against the merger proposal. Volvo dealers in North America expressed strong concerns that the merger would dilute Volvo’s strong brand franchise because Volvo was viewed comparatively poor there. Lastly, 900 company civil engineers called for postponement. Push against the merger rises quickly after one dissenter.

The proposal failed when Volvo’s board decided to withdraw in December 1993 based on the recommendation by Soren Gyll. He based the recommendation on a special meeting with Volvo’s senior divisional managers, and a letter from 25 senior managers expressing disapproval. Under the alliance, control of joint activities had been 50/50. With the merger, managers believed that control would tilt 65/35 to Renault and Volvo.

What were the implications of this episode for analysts and executives in strategic alliances?

Executives pursing a strategic alliance should allay stakeholder questions by providing timely, accurate, grounded, and factual information. An emphasis on trust and confidence creates a buy-in atmosphere for all parties; strong-arm tactics and limited timelines create questions and divisions. Executives involved in strategic alliances should frequently seek third party analysis looking at the rational for the agreement. Gain pre-approval from employees, senior, and middle management prior to corporate changing actions. As basic business practices, executives must communicate benefits from corporate decisions to internal and external stakeholders.

Strategic alliances looking toward an eventual merger require continuous monitoring to ensure the decision is the company’s best interest. Environmental and economic factors change and strategic alliance should be analyzed within that context. Communication between companies should remain open, and any attempts to renegotiate must be viewed amicably. Executives should never view the merger as a foregone conclusion of a strategic alliance.

Sunday, May 03, 2009

Paradox of Tax

Currently, the United States government, states, and cities derive tax revenue from income, property, gambling, sales, and sin taxes. These tax revenues have been used to build public services: roads, police & fire forces, healthcare, and parks. Rarely are the taxes people pay directly attributed to the benefits received. For instance, income taxes build roads, and higher income individuals build more roads than lower income individuals. However, lower income individuals pay less per mile than higher income individuals who drive less. The paradox of our tax system and usage of tax dollars forces people to act unnaturally.

A person acts unnaturally when he cannot assess the full cost of performing an action. Collectively, the problem multiplies. I’ll discuss roads because everyone is familiar with driving. However, it should be replicated across as many services as possible.

Governments should remove the portion of income, property, gambling, sales, and sin taxes spent on building and maintaining roads. Then, instate that tax on gasoline sales. Net effect on the average citizen who makes the average income and uses average gasoline will be zero. Net effect on high-income individuals who use less than average volumes of gasoline will be positive. Net effect on low-income individuals who use above-average volumes of gasoline will be negative. Therefore, people will directly associate actions with costs.

When people directly associate a cost with an action, they minimize that action. Revenues for road maintenance and building will crumble in the short-run. The US observed this with demand destruction at $4.50 / gallon. However, people make decisions that lower the cost of road maintenance and building: driving lighter cars that consume less gas, move closer to required amenities, or walking versus driving. Individuals are given the option to choose their tax rates (but actually a 'service fee').

Taxes and government policies produce unnatural incentives. Income taxes versus actual cost taxes subsidize actions of lower income residents no matter the cost to society. Abnormally low-cost mortgage arrangements encourage people to purchase houses, instead of renting. Disproportional transportation costs people to make decisions contrary to collective best interests.

I’m not against the “American Way of Life:” traveling to work in the city from a big house a away in a suburb. I am for government not creating false incentives for people to act unnaturally. As much as possible, consumers of public services should recognize the costs associated with their actions. The paradox of tax is: no matter the intent, it makes people act unnaturally.

Saturday, May 02, 2009

Why Sustainable?

Most often we here “sustainable” in the term “sustainable development.” To answer the question why sustainable, let’s answer the question: “What is development?” Development is creating something new. The purpose of creating something new is to gain an advantage.

Development is using resources to create something that provides an advantage. Past examples of macro development has been power grids, interstate road systems, and government. These systems provide advantages for everyone who participates in the system. Micro development extends into industries, businesses, and people’s lives: i.e. people purchase cell phones to give them an advantage.

Development requires initial investments: the creation of the object. The interstate system in 1956 was the largest project ever undertaken: costing $114 billion dollars (not adjusted for inflation).

The interstate system provided an advantage. Transportation times were shortened substantially. Large trucks are now the backbone of our economy. The advantage the United States received from the interstate system was much larger than the $114 billion dollars invested.

In 2009, the interstate system is a foundation for our efficiency. Original creation of the system was a cost and a benefit for our system. Maintenance of the interestate is a cost, but not a benefit. The entire system does not perform better because a bridge is repaired or replaced. Maintenance does not benefit anyone, except the person receiving payment for maintenance. That’s the paradox of maintenance: it provides no benefit, but it is required to maintain current efficiencies.

With that preface, why sustainable development? The answer: because maintenance provides no benefit. In the United States, we are no longer a blank slate. We have a choice between maintenance and re-creation. Our administration is verbally pushing re-creation with a twist, “sustainable re-creation.”

Schumpeter’s term “creative destruction” applies to wiping out technologies due to advances. American’s would rather create than maintain; we’d rather buy a new car than repair a broken axel. That’s why the administrations fight for sustainable development is so important. New creation and development is easier to sell to American’s than “maintenance.”

However, don’t expect the massive maintenance bill, aka “Stimulus Bill,” to change the marginal productivity of labor. It’s providing much needed maintenance for the current infrastructure; it’s not creating something new, and no advantages will be had.

Monday, April 27, 2009

My Experience with a House Auction in Birmingham

Today, I participated in a house auction in Vestavia, Alabama. We discovered the auction three days ago. We had the house inspected yesterday. From the time we viewed the house, we began due diligence for the auction.

We found a green ranch style house built in 1960 with good bones, but necessary repairs. It sat on a half-acre lot in an excellent neighborhood. Prior to auction, the house was listed for $139,000—cheap enough to assume financing, and payment. First, we decided whether we wanted the house. My wife had an emphatic “YES!” Actually, she designed the color patterns, and chose appliances from Craigslist. I was more apprehensive.

Next, we began due diligence, which consisted of three steps: an inspection, speaking with the mortgage underwriter, and financial analysis. The inspector told us to plan for a new air conditioning and heating service ($2,000 - $5,000) immediately, and a new roof ($5,000) within a year. The mortgage guy helped us minimize our initial capital outlay. Interestingly, a 5.75% interest rate was more desirable than a 4.75% requiring a MIPS payment of $3,000, an origination fee of $1,500, and a monthly PMI of $100. With the 5.75% mortgage and required payments at closing, and immediate repairs, we found a maximum on the house to be $112,000.

The house had a 5% “service fee” tacked onto the maximum mid. Therefore, our maximum bid was $107,000 (actually $106,667).

With our inspection, mortgage information, and financial analysis, I headed to the auction. I told our real estate agent to kick me if I bid above my maximum price. Five houses were auctioned off, and ours was last. Experience of seeing four auctions prior to “game time” soothed my nerves.

Once ours was announced, I listened keenly. The disclaimer was the same as the four previous, and bidding began similar to the others. Bids quickly ramped up from $10,000 to $40,000, $60,000, $80,000, $90,000. Then silence. Someone was holding the highest bid at $90,000, and the auctioneer asked for $95,000; he got it. Quickly someone else bid $100,000. Pace slowed, and everyone looked around for the next bidder. When he asked for $105,000, I flashed my card. $106,000; someone else. $107,000; I was quicker to bid this time. The pace slowed again. From $10,000 to $107,000, only 45 seconds passed. I remember my analysis—I was at my maximum.

Next a lady raised the bid to $108,000. I waited to give her thinking time. I waited to give me thinking time. I remember my analysis--$108,000 to $109,000 was marginal. The difference between the two was slim. I flashed my card. I had the high bid: $109,000.

Do I want this house? Are there costs associated with the house I don’t know about? Will this wipe-out my savings? Pausing, she bid $110,000. I don’t know how long I had the high bid—4 seconds, maybe. It felt like a minute, and everything became clear.

At $110,000, she and I were the last bidders. My decision prior to the auction determined it was too high for me. I feared buyer’s regret. At $107,000 I was certain. At $110,000, I feared a bidding war that left me standing, and owning uncertainty.

Pressure came, and everyone was looking at me. Auctioneer asked if I would go $111,000? How about $110,500? I shook my head, and the event was over. She won the house for $110,000 (plus a 5% “service fee,” or 115,500).

As I walked away, I tried to answer the question, “Would I have paid $110,000?” All I could think was, “absolutely.”

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Relationship of Past to Future and Thought Models

Future events are more predictable than the past. Taleb stated this in Black Swan and provided good support. Essentially, this point in time could be created by infinite possible historical events. Some historical possibilities are quixotic: the world was created yesterday, and everything is the way it is. Others more rational: over 4.6 billion years the earth created life from a melting pot (which is the debate between creationists and everyone else). Even the recent past, i.e. yesterday, creates infinite nodes on a decision tree, and multiple nodes lead to the current point. Anyone could have done infinite events yesterday, not restricted by resources, time, other people, or environment, and be where they are now.

However, resources, time, other people, and environment bind the future. A person can only get so far today based on resources (i.e. money), time (only 24 hours better get going), other people (“liquidity for one, insolvency for all”), and environment (200 years ago you had a small possibility spectrum). Side note: I’m an optimist, and I believe in stringing together victories for change—not fell swoop, lottery changes to the future.

Past future decisions had more possibilities than current future decisions. Creation of predictive models attempts to tame the future based on collective handling of the future in the past. Past future decisions were based on resources, time, other people, and environment at that point in history.

Failures of models attempt to define collective output of all decisions with a limited number of inputs. Deviation from the future and predictive models occurs due to a change in inputs. Models disregard the current binding input in favor of past correlative inputs.

Bubbles happen when most inputs are found from past data, and perpetual future assumptions are made on this limited set of inputs. Crises happen when a new binding input is collectively found.

In 2007, what was the binding input: confidence, incoming or outgoing money? Economists are largely okay with cramming 2007 into current models, calling it largely accurate, and going forward. Economist’s antithesis wants them hung for not predicting the future.

Economists have shown they are excellent builders of models that match the events. However, they are lousy at determining the actual inputs.

Everyone poorly defines current restrictions on the future. For example, ask someone “What do you want to do?” Then ask them “Why aren’t you doing it?” That person will give a list of artificial restrictions.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Buy or Rent: an NPV of the Birmingham Housing Market



My wife and I sold our house in May 2008. With our equity, we could afford to set the price aggressively to sell. It was better to sell our house for less, than it was to hold on for a mythical price.

After we sold our house, we moved into an apartment. When selling, the buyer’s agent asked, “Why are you selling?” And my reply was, “I don’t want to be in a house right now.” I can’t say that I foresaw the economic meltdown last fall; my projections were 10% interest rates as the supply money for mortgages decreased. Either way, it was a good move.

Trade-Offs: Apartment v. House

Apartments are cramped, and most “features” of a house are indirect to the features of an apartment. For instance, in an apartment you don’t have yard work, in a house you have to do yard work; the trade-off is a yard where you can play. Other trade-offs include maintenance, cost of utilities, trash, taxes, etc. The costs of a house are explicit, but most benefits are implicit.

Like most personal finance decisions, we have decided we want to live in a house for non-financial reasons. We made the decision based on non-financial metrics, but financial metrics determine our price range and feasibility of living in a house.

Assumptions & Data

As, we are not speculators; therefore, we are not betting on aggressive increases housing price. Remember this when I am talking about owning a house, and appreciation.

We will start with our known information and assumptions:















































Principal on House$120,000.00
Rent$830.00
Interest Rate4.85%
Mortgage Months360
Tax Rate12.00%
PMI Rate1.00%
Pay PMI Until20%
Variable Utilities (House / Rent)50.00%
Property Taxes1.00%
Repairs (Mortgage Payment)50.00%
Rent Increase2.15%
Corporate Bond Yield6%
Growth of House Value1%
Closing Costs3%



Currently, our rent is $830, marginal tax rate is 12%, monthly variable utilities average $215, and fixed utilities average $100. I’m using the corporate bond yield of 6% to discount the costs. Marginal tax rate is included because of the beneficial treatment of mortgage interest by the IRS. I'm using 6% discount rate because I can receive that on a relatively safe bond.

One bit of contention is the 2% growth of house value; it is the long-term growth of housing values—-I read that recently somewhere. Include anticipated repairs and upfront repairs that must be made prior to move-in. Monthly repairs of "50%" assumes costs are half the mortgage payment, which is a best guess. Owning would significantly outweigh renting if no repairs were needed.

Findings

First, buying a house with a 30-year mortgage is not a positive NPV project.

Given the assumptions above, the following NPV’s exists for renting and owning after the following durations:


































BuyingRenting
1 years($19,315.04)($13,381.76)
5 years($73,679.56)($61,384.46)
10 years($126,077.78)($110,696.20)
20 years($191,423.27)($182,415.45)
30 years($231,285.04)($229,245.59)


Throughout the duration of the project, renting always has a higher NPV than buying. From year 1 through year 20, renting actually has gains on buying. Only from year 20 through year 30 when principal has been reduced, does buying gain on renting.

I've heard people claim, "At least with owning a house, you receive a check when you leave." If he rented and saved the rest, he would have more money than the closing check. Seeing that most people are moving houses less than every 10 years, most are making poor financial decisions.

Outcome

In order to maintain our current economic position on housing, we cannot buy a $120,000 house. Also, the value of housing is a function of time, and the indeterminate market value of the house. As people have recently found, the owner receives the benefit/detriment of changes in house prices.

We continue to look for houses, but I don't expect to make any money in the process.